---
title: "Launch day: what success looks like"
url: https://memory.wiki/mXy_aztt
updated: 2026-05-14T18:15:49.480Z
hub: https://memory.wiki/hub/demo
bundle_count: 1
concept_count: 12
source: "memory.wiki"
---
# Launch day: what success looks like

> Show HN day plan. The thresholds I'm pre-committing to so I don't accidentally move them post-hoc.

## The realistic upside

**Top of HN front page for 4+ hours.** Requires hitting the front page within the first hour after posting (HN's ranking algorithm strongly favours early velocity) and sustaining engagement through the European afternoon and the US morning.

If this happens, I expect:
- 800-1500 sign-ups within 24h
- ~150-300 trial-to-keeper conversions (define "keeper" as: still has at least one doc 14 days post-sign-up)
- 4-6 inbound press / podcast queries
- 1-3 inbound investor reach-outs (which I'll defer politely; not raising)

## The reasonable mid case

**Front page for 1-2 hours, conversation in the 100-200 comment range.**

If this happens:
- 200-400 sign-ups
- 30-80 keepers
- The bigger value is the conversation itself — I'll mine the comments for what reads as the most compelling and the most repelling

## The downside

**Page 2-3, no significant discussion.**

If this happens:
- < 100 sign-ups, probably ~50
- The signal I take is "the framing didn't land", not "the product doesn't work." Re-write the framing, post again in 4 weeks under a different angle.

## What I'm NOT measuring on launch day

- **Revenue.** We're free during beta. Zero by design.
- **Server cost.** We're built on Supabase + Vercel; the marginal cost is rounding error.
- **Twitter/X engagement.** I'll tweet the launch but the HN comment thread is the actual signal channel.

## The non-negotiables

- **I respond to every comment** within 6 hours, personally, not via a marketing voice. The HN audience can smell PR from a screen away.
- **No upvote begging.** Posting to friends as "hey, shipped this" is fine. "Please upvote" is not.
- **No founder ego in the writing.** The Show HN post is technical and specific. No "revolutionary" / "disrupt" / "next-gen."


---

## Concepts in this document
- **mdfy** _(entity)_
  A tool that stores project context and decision history, integrated into Cursor via custom rules.
- **Structural moat** _(concept)_
  The defensible advantage created by mdfy's vendor-neutral positioning, which competitors cannot replicate due to inherent conflicts of interest.
- **Claude** _(entity)_
  Anthropic's AI model cited as an example of vendor lock-in through projects and memory features.
- **Hacker News** _(entity)_
  Primary GTM channel chosen for high ICP overlap with developers and format alignment with technical credibility.
- **Cursor** _(entity)_
  Code editor that consumes mdfy bundles as context for chat and composer sessions.
- **ChatGPT** _(entity)_
  Example of an AI provider whose memory feature is intentionally confined to its own product.
- **Cross-AI memory** _(concept)_
  The core thesis: a memory layer that persists across multiple AI providers simultaneously, structurally unavailable to single-vendor AI companies.
- **Anthropic** _(entity)_
  Incumbent AI vendor mentioned as competitive threat with integrated memory and user lock-in.
- **Show HN Launch** _(concept)_
  Central launch strategy focused on Hacker News as primary channel.
- **Launch Strategy** _(tag)_
  The overarching theme covering all aspects of the product launch preparation and execution.
- **mdfy product** _(entity)_
  The core product being developed with build-in-public approach and AI integration as substrate.
- **Competitive Positioning** _(tag)_
  How the product differentiates from alternatives and establishes unique market position.

## Concept relations (within this doc's concepts)
- **Launch Strategy** encompasses approach **Show HN Launch**
- **Competitive Positioning** includes strategy **Structural moat**
- **Structural moat** enables differentiation **Competitive Positioning**
- **Hacker News** primary channel **Launch Strategy**
- **Cross-AI memory** creates advantage **Structural moat**
- **Claude** developed by **Anthropic**
- **mdfy** integrates with **Claude**
- **mdfy** solves problem for **ChatGPT**
- **mdfy** integrates with **Cursor**
- **Structural moat** enables **Cross-AI memory**
- **Cursor** positioned to deliver **Cross-AI memory**
- **mdfy** integrated into **Cursor**

## Bundles containing this document
- [Launch strategy: Show HN week](https://memory.wiki/b/DlrrKcQ2)
  > Pre-launch plan + GTM channels + what not to do. The strategy bundle a reviewer can read end-to-end.

_Hub canonical:_ https://memory.wiki/hub/demo
_Concept digest:_ https://memory.wiki/raw/hub/demo?digest=1&compact=1